An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations

The global effect of road traffic accident has led to numerous efforts by stakeholders to improve on road safety records at different levels. Countries set fatality reduction targets to be achieved over a certain period of time. An efficient scheme for fatality reduction comes with the need to have...

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Main Authors: Danlami, N., Napiah, M., Sadullah, A.F.M., Bala, N.
Format: Article
Institution: Universiti Teknologi Petronas
Record Id / ISBN-0: utp-eprints.19283 /
Published: IAEME Publication 2017
Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85036502825&partnerID=40&md5=f7ada91a21e0b9e3298614a009d4bc3c
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/19283/
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spelling utp-eprints.192832018-08-01T00:58:39Z An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations Danlami, N. Napiah, M. Sadullah, A.F.M. Bala, N. The global effect of road traffic accident has led to numerous efforts by stakeholders to improve on road safety records at different levels. Countries set fatality reduction targets to be achieved over a certain period of time. An efficient scheme for fatality reduction comes with the need to have a fair idea of what the figures will be in the future. Fatality prediction models are used to predict the likely number of fatality over a specified time period. For the Malaysian case, several models are available including Negative Binomial Regression Models, Smeed's Law Models, and ARIMA model. In this article, Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) is used to estimate road fatality using selected exposure variables. Population, Road Length, Vehicles involved in crashes and Mobile cell subscription per 100 people are found to be significant in predicting annual road fatality. GEE with negative binomial distribution was found to be suitable for use in short-term road fatality prediction modeling. A new exposure variable is proposed, tested and found satisfactory. The model developed was found to be reasonable when compared against similar existing models. © IAEME Publication. IAEME Publication 2017 Article PeerReviewed https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85036502825&partnerID=40&md5=f7ada91a21e0b9e3298614a009d4bc3c Danlami, N. and Napiah, M. and Sadullah, A.F.M. and Bala, N. (2017) An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 8 (11). pp. 452-465. http://eprints.utp.edu.my/19283/
institution Universiti Teknologi Petronas
collection UTP Institutional Repository
description The global effect of road traffic accident has led to numerous efforts by stakeholders to improve on road safety records at different levels. Countries set fatality reduction targets to be achieved over a certain period of time. An efficient scheme for fatality reduction comes with the need to have a fair idea of what the figures will be in the future. Fatality prediction models are used to predict the likely number of fatality over a specified time period. For the Malaysian case, several models are available including Negative Binomial Regression Models, Smeed's Law Models, and ARIMA model. In this article, Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) is used to estimate road fatality using selected exposure variables. Population, Road Length, Vehicles involved in crashes and Mobile cell subscription per 100 people are found to be significant in predicting annual road fatality. GEE with negative binomial distribution was found to be suitable for use in short-term road fatality prediction modeling. A new exposure variable is proposed, tested and found satisfactory. The model developed was found to be reasonable when compared against similar existing models. © IAEME Publication.
format Article
author Danlami, N.
Napiah, M.
Sadullah, A.F.M.
Bala, N.
spellingShingle Danlami, N.
Napiah, M.
Sadullah, A.F.M.
Bala, N.
An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations
author_sort Danlami, N.
title An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations
title_short An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations
title_full An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations
title_fullStr An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations
title_full_unstemmed An overview and prediction of Malaysian road fatality: Approach using generalized estimating equations
title_sort overview and prediction of malaysian road fatality: approach using generalized estimating equations
publisher IAEME Publication
publishDate 2017
url https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85036502825&partnerID=40&md5=f7ada91a21e0b9e3298614a009d4bc3c
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/19283/
_version_ 1741196182336569344
score 11.62408

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