Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model

Over the years the retail price of petroleum fuel in Malaysia, Ron95, Ron97 and Diesel have been controlled by the governments using the Automatic Price Mechanism (APM) which made the price of fuel in Malaysia relatively stable up until 2004. Beyond the year 2004, the price of petroleum fuel has bee...

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Main Authors: Sokkalingam, R., Sarpong-Streetor, R.M.N.Y., Othman, M., Daud, H., Owusu, D.A.
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Institution: Universiti Teknologi Petronas
Record Id / ISBN-0: utp-eprints.29268 /
Published: Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2021
Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85123299699&doi=10.1007%2f978-981-16-4513-6_58&partnerID=40&md5=782611ff807ff11c56d7506ef34e0f7f
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/29268/
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spelling utp-eprints.292682022-03-25T01:26:28Z Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model Sokkalingam, R. Sarpong-Streetor, R.M.N.Y. Othman, M. Daud, H. Owusu, D.A. Over the years the retail price of petroleum fuel in Malaysia, Ron95, Ron97 and Diesel have been controlled by the governments using the Automatic Price Mechanism (APM) which made the price of fuel in Malaysia relatively stable up until 2004. Beyond the year 2004, the price of petroleum fuel has been volatile even with the APM still being implemented. Even after changing the Policy to Managed float system in 2016 fuel prices have still not been stable. Reasons that have been attributed to the volatilities are the international crude oil price and foreign exchange volatilities and reduction of subsidies to improve government fiscal space. Predicting fuel Prices has become difficult. In this paper we apply the Time Series method Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to model and forecast fuel price. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. Springer Science and Business Media B.V. 2021 Conference or Workshop Item NonPeerReviewed https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85123299699&doi=10.1007%2f978-981-16-4513-6_58&partnerID=40&md5=782611ff807ff11c56d7506ef34e0f7f Sokkalingam, R. and Sarpong-Streetor, R.M.N.Y. and Othman, M. and Daud, H. and Owusu, D.A. (2021) Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model. In: UNSPECIFIED. http://eprints.utp.edu.my/29268/
institution Universiti Teknologi Petronas
collection UTP Institutional Repository
description Over the years the retail price of petroleum fuel in Malaysia, Ron95, Ron97 and Diesel have been controlled by the governments using the Automatic Price Mechanism (APM) which made the price of fuel in Malaysia relatively stable up until 2004. Beyond the year 2004, the price of petroleum fuel has been volatile even with the APM still being implemented. Even after changing the Policy to Managed float system in 2016 fuel prices have still not been stable. Reasons that have been attributed to the volatilities are the international crude oil price and foreign exchange volatilities and reduction of subsidies to improve government fiscal space. Predicting fuel Prices has become difficult. In this paper we apply the Time Series method Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to model and forecast fuel price. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
format Conference or Workshop Item
author Sokkalingam, R.
Sarpong-Streetor, R.M.N.Y.
Othman, M.
Daud, H.
Owusu, D.A.
spellingShingle Sokkalingam, R.
Sarpong-Streetor, R.M.N.Y.
Othman, M.
Daud, H.
Owusu, D.A.
Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model
author_sort Sokkalingam, R.
title Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model
title_short Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model
title_full Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model
title_fullStr Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting Petroleum Fuel Price in Malaysia by ARIMA Model
title_sort forecasting petroleum fuel price in malaysia by arima model
publisher Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
publishDate 2021
url https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85123299699&doi=10.1007%2f978-981-16-4513-6_58&partnerID=40&md5=782611ff807ff11c56d7506ef34e0f7f
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/29268/
_version_ 1741197214793859072
score 11.62408

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