Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model

One of the damage mechanisms experienced by insulated piping systems in refineries and petrochemical plants are corrosion under insulation (CUI). CUI is found to be a major problem for insulated pipes as it becomes even worse as the pipes age. Gradual metal loss may cause the pipe to leak or in the...

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Main Authors: Mokhtar, Ainul Akmar, Che Ismail, Mokhtar, Muhammad , Masdi, Hussin, Hilmi
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Institution: Universiti Teknologi Petronas
Record Id / ISBN-0: utp-eprints.7828 /
Published: 2012
Subjects:
TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
Online Access: http://eprints.utp.edu.my/7828/1/Assessing_Piping_Failure_Probability_subject_to_Corrosion_under_Insulation_using_Markov_Model.pdf
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/7828/
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spelling utp-eprints.78282017-03-20T01:59:29Z Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model Mokhtar, Ainul Akmar Che Ismail, Mokhtar Muhammad , Masdi Hussin, Hilmi TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery One of the damage mechanisms experienced by insulated piping systems in refineries and petrochemical plants are corrosion under insulation (CUI). CUI is found to be a major problem for insulated pipes as it becomes even worse as the pipes age. Gradual metal loss may cause the pipe to leak or in the worst scenario, the pipe may rupture. Since the insulated pipes carry hydrocarbons or other process fluids, the presence of leak may lead to a hazardous situation. Therefore, proper inspection and maintenance of these pipes is necessary for sustaining a safe and continuous operation. Risk-based inspection (RBI) strategy has been adopted to establish the inspection strategy for piping systems where the strategy is based on risk calculated. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of failure and its consequences of failure. Assessing the probability of failure for piping systems subject to CUI in RBI analysis typically follows the guideline by American Petroleum Institute (API 581) where the method is deterministic. Within the literature, it has been found that no probabilistic model has currently been applied to insulated piping systems to estimate the failure probability. Therefore, this study explores one of the probabilistic approaches which is a continuous-time Markov modeling technique. This paper presents a methodology for the estimation of the failure probability of insulated piping systems containing corrosion defects. First-order reliability method (FORM) is employed for estimating the transition rate of the Markov model due to the presence of nonlinearity in the limit-state function and also in the possible presence of non-normal variables. The methodology is applied to a real case study and the remaining useful life of the insulated pipe is assessed. 2012-06-12 Conference or Workshop Item NonPeerReviewed application/pdf http://eprints.utp.edu.my/7828/1/Assessing_Piping_Failure_Probability_subject_to_Corrosion_under_Insulation_using_Markov_Model.pdf Mokhtar, Ainul Akmar and Che Ismail, Mokhtar and Muhammad , Masdi and Hussin, Hilmi (2012) Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model. In: 2012 The 3rd International Conference on Production, Energy and Reliability (ICPER), 12 - 14 June, 2012, Kuala Lumpur Convention Center, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. http://eprints.utp.edu.my/7828/
institution Universiti Teknologi Petronas
collection UTP Institutional Repository
topic TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
spellingShingle TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
Mokhtar, Ainul Akmar
Che Ismail, Mokhtar
Muhammad , Masdi
Hussin, Hilmi
Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model
description One of the damage mechanisms experienced by insulated piping systems in refineries and petrochemical plants are corrosion under insulation (CUI). CUI is found to be a major problem for insulated pipes as it becomes even worse as the pipes age. Gradual metal loss may cause the pipe to leak or in the worst scenario, the pipe may rupture. Since the insulated pipes carry hydrocarbons or other process fluids, the presence of leak may lead to a hazardous situation. Therefore, proper inspection and maintenance of these pipes is necessary for sustaining a safe and continuous operation. Risk-based inspection (RBI) strategy has been adopted to establish the inspection strategy for piping systems where the strategy is based on risk calculated. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of failure and its consequences of failure. Assessing the probability of failure for piping systems subject to CUI in RBI analysis typically follows the guideline by American Petroleum Institute (API 581) where the method is deterministic. Within the literature, it has been found that no probabilistic model has currently been applied to insulated piping systems to estimate the failure probability. Therefore, this study explores one of the probabilistic approaches which is a continuous-time Markov modeling technique. This paper presents a methodology for the estimation of the failure probability of insulated piping systems containing corrosion defects. First-order reliability method (FORM) is employed for estimating the transition rate of the Markov model due to the presence of nonlinearity in the limit-state function and also in the possible presence of non-normal variables. The methodology is applied to a real case study and the remaining useful life of the insulated pipe is assessed.
format Conference or Workshop Item
author Mokhtar, Ainul Akmar
Che Ismail, Mokhtar
Muhammad , Masdi
Hussin, Hilmi
author_sort Mokhtar, Ainul Akmar
title Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model
title_short Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model
title_full Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model
title_fullStr Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model
title_full_unstemmed Assessing Piping Failure Probability subject to Corrosion under Insulation using Markov Model
title_sort assessing piping failure probability subject to corrosion under insulation using markov model
publishDate 2012
url http://eprints.utp.edu.my/7828/1/Assessing_Piping_Failure_Probability_subject_to_Corrosion_under_Insulation_using_Markov_Model.pdf
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/7828/
_version_ 1741196107272159232
score 11.62408

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