Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system

Contractors traditionally estimate cost contingency based on subjective judgment, such as 5–10% from the cost estimated by considering past similar project. However, such method does not have a sound basis and is difficult to justify or defend. Therefore, more objective methods for estimating proj...

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Main Authors: Idrus, Arazi, Nuruddin, F, Rohman, M.Arif
Format: Article
Institution: Universiti Teknologi Petronas
Record Id / ISBN-0: utp-eprints.3281 /
Published: Elsevier 2010
Subjects:
TH Building construction
Online Access: http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3281/1/ESWA4955.pdf
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3281/
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spelling utp-eprints.32812017-03-20T07:48:16Z Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system Idrus, Arazi Nuruddin, F Rohman, M.Arif TH Building construction Contractors traditionally estimate cost contingency based on subjective judgment, such as 5–10% from the cost estimated by considering past similar project. However, such method does not have a sound basis and is difficult to justify or defend. Therefore, more objective methods for estimating project cost contingency have been presented. However, most of the methods still rely on formal modeling techniques, which is not easy to be applied in construction industry. This research proposes a method to estimate cost contingency using a flexible and rational approach that could accommodate contractors’subjective judgment based on risk analysis and fuzzy expert system concept. In this research, the proposed method involved the development of cost contingency model for building and infrastructure projects in Malaysia. According to the validation result, it was found that the predictions given by the system were within 20% accuracy compared to actual cost contingencies. Elsevier 2010 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3281/1/ESWA4955.pdf Idrus, Arazi and Nuruddin, F and Rohman, M.Arif (2010) Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system. Expert Systems with Applications, Volume (Issue ). pp. 1501-1508. http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3281/
institution Universiti Teknologi Petronas
collection UTP Institutional Repository
topic TH Building construction
spellingShingle TH Building construction
Idrus, Arazi
Nuruddin, F
Rohman, M.Arif
Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system
description Contractors traditionally estimate cost contingency based on subjective judgment, such as 5–10% from the cost estimated by considering past similar project. However, such method does not have a sound basis and is difficult to justify or defend. Therefore, more objective methods for estimating project cost contingency have been presented. However, most of the methods still rely on formal modeling techniques, which is not easy to be applied in construction industry. This research proposes a method to estimate cost contingency using a flexible and rational approach that could accommodate contractors’subjective judgment based on risk analysis and fuzzy expert system concept. In this research, the proposed method involved the development of cost contingency model for building and infrastructure projects in Malaysia. According to the validation result, it was found that the predictions given by the system were within 20% accuracy compared to actual cost contingencies.
format Article
author Idrus, Arazi
Nuruddin, F
Rohman, M.Arif
author_sort Idrus, Arazi
title Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system
title_short Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system
title_full Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system
title_fullStr Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system
title_full_unstemmed Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system
title_sort development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system
publisher Elsevier
publishDate 2010
url http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3281/1/ESWA4955.pdf
http://eprints.utp.edu.my/3281/
_version_ 1741196067089678336
score 11.62408

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